| Zhao Yu,Zhang Yu,Fan Shengnan,et al.Development of flight personnel effective dose estimation model based on multiple linear regression[J].Chinese Journal of Radiological Medicine and Protection,2026,46(2):129-134 |
| Development of flight personnel effective dose estimation model based on multiple linear regression |
| Received:June 11, 2025 |
| DOI：10.3760/cma.j.cn112271-20250611-00199 |
| KeyWords:Aircrew Occupational exposure Effective dose |
| FundProject: |
| Author Name | Affiliation | E-mail | | Zhao Yu | The Department of Radiation Health and Occupational Health, Heilongjiang Provincial Center for Disease Control and Prevention, Harbin 150030, China | | | Zhang Yu | China CDC Key Laboratory of Radiological Protection and Nuclear Emergency, National Institute of Radiological Protection, Chinese Center for Disease Control and Prevention, Beijing 100088, China | | | Fan Shengnan | China CDC Key Laboratory of Radiological Protection and Nuclear Emergency, National Institute of Radiological Protection, Chinese Center for Disease Control and Prevention, Beijing 100088, China | | | Cao Bo | The Department of Radiation Health and Occupational Health, Heilongjiang Provincial Center for Disease Control and Prevention, Harbin 150030, China | | | Li Mengxue | China CDC Key Laboratory of Radiological Protection and Nuclear Emergency, National Institute of Radiological Protection, Chinese Center for Disease Control and Prevention, Beijing 100088, China | | | Zhang Jingguo | China CDC Key Laboratory of Radiological Protection and Nuclear Emergency, National Institute of Radiological Protection, Chinese Center for Disease Control and Prevention, Beijing 100088, China | | | Deng Jun | China CDC Key Laboratory of Radiological Protection and Nuclear Emergency, National Institute of Radiological Protection, Chinese Center for Disease Control and Prevention, Beijing 100088, China | dengjun@nirp.chinacdc.cn |
|
| Hits: 6379 |
| Download times: 1956 |
| Abstract:: |
| Objective To develop a set of effective dose estimation models for flight personnel with independent intellectual property rights, which could be capable of covering the entire territory in the country and rapidly estimating radiation doses along flight routes and facilitating the optimization and improvement of the occupational health management system for Chinese aircrews. Methods Effective doses at different cruising altitudes were estimated using by CARI-7A simulation along 14 616 flight routes on 696 opened domestic routes. A multiple linear regression model was established with the flying time and altitude, longitude and latitude of departure location, and destination location as independent variables, and the effective dose on flight route as the dependent variable. Subsequently, the model was verified for accuracy by using relevant standard data. Results R2adjusted was 0.85 for the constructed multiple linear regression model and average error between the effective doses, predicted by regression model and proposed by the national standard, was 7.0%. Of all the independent variables introduced into the model, the flying time (β=0.81,P<0.05) was the primary factor influencing the effective dose to flight personnel, followed by altitude (β=0.30,P<0.05), destination latitude (β=0.09,P<0.05), and departure latitude (β=0.09,P<0.05). The departure longitude and the destination longitude exhibited relatively weak negative correlations (β=-0.02, -0.03, P<0.05). All variables were statistically significant, and no multicollinearity was detected among the variables (VIF< 5). Conclusions The constructed multiple linear regression model demonstrated a robust capability for estimating the effective dose on flight routes. The model revealed that of all influencing factors, both flying time and altitude were crucial factors influecing the effective dose during aviation. Additionally, the longitude and latitude of the departure and destination locations also have an influence on the effective dose during air travel. Airlines could take account of the factor of radiation exposure dose to optimize shift schedule management for different flight routes. This approach could reasonably minimize the cosmic radiation exposure to aircrew to the greatest extent possible. |
| HTML View Full Text View/Add Comment Download reader |
| Close |
|
|
|
