| Wang Yong,Zhang Qun,Bao Kaifang,et al.Trend in malignant tumor mortality for the surrounding residents prior to operation of Jinqimen Nuclear Power Plant at Xiangshan county, Zhejiang province during 2011-2023[J].Chinese Journal of Radiological Medicine and Protection,2025,45(10):991-1002 |
| Trend in malignant tumor mortality for the surrounding residents prior to operation of Jinqimen Nuclear Power Plant at Xiangshan county, Zhejiang province during 2011-2023 |
| Received:February 28, 2025 |
| DOI：10.3760/cma.j.cn112271-20250228-00068 |
| KeyWords:Malignant tumor mortality Nuclear power plant Radiation-sensitive tumors |
| FundProject:宁波市医学品牌学科(PPXK2024-09)；宁波市卫生健康科技计划项目(2023Y31)；浙江省基础公益研究计划项目(LGF22H220002)；宁波市科技公益项目(2022S069) |
| Author Name | Affiliation | E-mail | | Wang Yong | Environmental, Occupational and Radiological Health Department, Ningbo Municipal Center for Disease Control and Prevention, Ningbo 315010, China | | | Zhang Qun | Environmental, Occupational and Radiological Health Department, Ningbo Municipal Center for Disease Control and Prevention, Ningbo 315010, China | | | Bao Kaifang | Chronic Non-communicable Diseases Control Department, Ningbo Municipal Center for Disease Control and Prevention, Ningbo 315010, China | | | Lu Beibei | Environmental, Occupational and Radiological Health Department, Ningbo Municipal Center for Disease Control and Prevention, Ningbo 315010, China | | | Chen Jieping | Chronic Non-communicable Diseases Control Department, Ningbo Municipal Center for Disease Control and Prevention, Ningbo 315010, China | | | Chen Zi | Chronic Non-communicable Diseases Control Department, Xiangshan County Center for Disease Control and Prevention, Ningbo 315799, China | | | Li Mingxiang | Chronic Non-communicable Diseases Control Department, Xiangshan County Center for Disease Control and Prevention, Ningbo 315799, China | | | Wang Xiaoli | Ningbo College of Health Sciences, School of Nursing, Ningbo 315800, China | | | Zhang Dandan | Office of Ningbo Municipal Center for Disease Control and Prevention, Ningbo 315010, China | zhangdd@nbcdc.org.cn |
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| Abstract:: |
| Objective To analyze the 2011-to-2023 baseline data on, and the variations theirin, malignant tumor mortality for the surrounding residents prior to operation of the Jin-Qimen nuclear power plant at Xiangshan county, Zhejiang province, for pursose of providing scientific basis for evaluating the health impacts of nuclear power plant operation. Methods Data on malignant tumor mortality and population in Xiangshan county from 2011 to 2023 were collected from the Ningzhou Cause of Death Monitoring System and the Ningzhou Public Security Bureau. Crude death rates and standardized rates (China standard population) were calculated. The Joinpoint regression model was used to analyze annual percentage change (APC) and average annual percentage change (AAPC). Results The average annual malignant tumor mortality from 2011 to 2023 was 212.42 deaths per 100 000 population (age-standardized rate: 133.16 deaths per 100 000 population), with males at 287.41 deaths per 100 000 and females at 135.40 deaths per 100 000 population. The crude mortality exhibited an upward trend (AAPC=1.264%, t=5.07, P < 0.05), while the age-standardized rate showed a significant downward trend (AAPC=-2.753%, t=-10.50, P < 0.05). Mortality increased with age (χ2=23 903.91, P < 0.05), peaking in the ≥85 age group (1 693.11 per 100 000), and rising trends were observed in males (χ2=16 982.46, P < 0.05) and females (χ2=7 329.05, P < 0.05). Leading causes included lung cancer, liver cancer, gastric cancer, colorectal cancer, and pancreatic cancer. Liver cancer, gastric cancer, and esophageal cancer showed declining trends, whereas prostate cancer increased. Radiation-sensitive tumors (e.g., leukemia, breast cancer, thyroid cancer) displayed no significant trends. Among individuals under the age of 30, leukemia and brain/nervous system cancers predominated; for those aged 30-79, the lung, liver, and gastric cancers were dominant; and for the group aged 80 and above, the lung, gastric, and colorectal cancers were dominant. Malignant tumor mortality increased with distance from the nuclear facility (χ2=6.90, P < 0.05), significantly in males (χ2=10.42, P < 0.05) but not in females (P>0.05). Leukemia, breast cancer, and thyroid cancer mortality showed no significant trends (P>0.05). Conclusions The age-standardized mortality rate for malignant tumors in Xiangshan county demonstrated an overall declining trend, with notable changes in specific cancers. Leukemia, breast cancer, and thyroid cancer mortality remained relatively stable. These baseline findings provide a scientific basis for health impact assessments of nuclear power plants and sustainable nuclear energy development. |
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