| 苗晓翔,苏垠平,卓维海,孙全富.基于EPA/BEIR-VI模型的我国居室内氡致肺癌风险估计[J].中华放射医学与防护杂志,2022,42(1):45-49 |
| 基于EPA/BEIR-VI模型的我国居室内氡致肺癌风险估计 |
| Risk estimation for lung cancer caused by indoor radon exposure in China based on EPA/BEIR-VI model |
| 投稿时间：2021-08-22 |
| DOI：10.3760/cma.j.cn112271-20210822-00338 |
| 中文关键词: EPA/BEIR-VI模型 居室氡 氡暴露 肺癌 风险 |
| 英文关键词:EPA/BEIR-VI model Indoor Radon Radon exposure Risk of Lung cancer |
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| 中文摘要: |
| 目的 估计我国居室内氡导致的居民肺癌归因份额。方法 利用较为权威且适用的EPA/BEIR-VI风险模型，基于我国2015年肺癌死亡率、全死因死亡率以及有代表性的吸烟率和居室内氡平均浓度，预测我国居室内氡浓度水平致肺癌死亡风险。结果 非吸烟男性人群居室内氡致肺癌死亡超额相对危险（ERR）高于吸烟人群，且达到年龄为50岁时，不吸烟与吸烟的男性ERR值最高，分别为0.511、0.230；假定开始暴露年龄为0岁，相同氡浓度下，不吸烟的男性与女性人群相对终生危险（LRR）要高于同性别吸烟人群，且浓度越高其肺癌死亡LRR也越高。假定我国居室内氡浓度水平为30 Bq/m3，2015年由居室内氡所致肺癌死亡人数约为55 512人，据此估算约有6.62%的肺癌死亡是由居室内氡暴露造成的。如果假设我国居室内氡浓度水平为40 Bq/m3和70 Bq/m3，则分别约有8.82%和15.38%的肺癌死亡可归因于居室内氡暴露。结论 居室内氡是导致我国居民罹患肺癌的重要环境因素，应采取有力措施防治我国居室内氡浓度水平升高。为能进一步准确评估我国居室内氡致肺癌死亡风险，还需要更为全面和详细的我国居室内氡浓度水平等数据。 |
| 英文摘要: |
| Objective To estimate the attribution share of residents'lung cancer caused by indoor Radon.Methods Based on the 2015 lung cancer mortality, all-cause mortality from China together with nationally representative smoking rate and the average indoor radon concentration of 30 Bq/m3, the relatively authoritative and applicable EPA/BEIR-VI risk model was used to predict the lung cancer mortality caused by indoor radon exposure.Results The excess relative risk (ERR) of indoor radon-related lung cancer mortality among the male non-smokers is higher than that of smokers. For the age-group above 50, the male smokers and male non-smokers have the highest ERR values, which were 0.511 and 0.230, respectively. Assuming the exposure incurred starting at age 0 with the same radon concentration, the lifetime risk of men and women non-smokers is higher than that of the smokers of the same gender. The higher the radon concentration, the higher the lifetime risk of lung cancer. Assuming that the radon concentration level in China is 30 Bq/m3, the number of deaths from indoor radon-related lung cancer in 2015 is about 55 512. According to this, about 6.62% of lung cancers are caused by indoor radon exposure. If we assume that radon concentration levels are 40 Bq/m3and 70 Bq/m3 in China, approximately 8.82% and 15.38% of lung cancer deaths can be attributed to indoor radon exposure.Conclusions Indoor radon exposure is an important environmental factor that causes Chinese residential lung cancer. Effective measures should be taken to prevent and control the increasing indoor radon levels. In order to accurately assess risk of lung cancer morality caused by indoor radon, more detailed data such as the indoor radon level in China are needed. |
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