| 王海军,孙全富,秋葉澄伯,张守志,钱叶侃,雷淑杰.阳江高本底地区辐射致癌危险分析(1979-2002年)[J].中华放射医学与防护杂志,2016,36(1):44-50 |
| 阳江高本底地区辐射致癌危险分析(1979-2002年) |
| A study on cancer mortality of the residents in the high background radiation area in Yangjiang, China (1979-2002) |
| 投稿时间：2015-07-19 |
| DOI：10.3760/cma.j.issn.0254-5098.2016.01.008 |
| 中文关键词: 高本底地区 小剂量辐射 癌症死亡 相对危险 |
| 英文关键词:High background radiation areas Low dose radiation Cancer mortality Relative risk |
| 基金项目:中日合作阳江地区放射流行病研究(901004) |
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| 中文摘要: |
| 目的 分析1999-2002年随访资料,并与既往1979-1998年资料合并分析,以期进一步提高辐射致癌危险估计的统计效能;调整个体吸烟因素,重新估计高本底地区小剂量电离辐射的致癌危险。 方法 高本底地区和对照地区居民癌症研究采用队列研究方法,分阶段对研究对象进行随访。本研究阶段首先搜集1999-2002年的癌症死亡资料,并初步分析1999-2002年高本底地区居民癌症死亡危险;其次通过ID号连接记录,将1999-2002年研究数据与1979-1998年研究数据进行合并,分析1979-2002年高本底地区居民的癌症死亡危险及调整吸烟后高本底地区居民的辐射致癌死亡危险。用Epicure软件中的DATAB模块计算人年数,用AMFIT模块的Poisson回归模型估算高本底地区居民癌症死亡的相对危险(RR)、超额相对危险系数(ERR/Sv)和可信区间(CI)。 结果 高本底地区和对照地区队列研究1999-2002年共随访76 264人,累积观察300 523人年,期间共死亡2 267例,其中癌症死亡239例。1979-2002年合并资料共随访125 079人,累积观察2 293 463人年,死亡14 711例,其中癌症死亡1 441例。1979-2002年癌症死亡分析结果显示,经性别、年龄调整后,高本底地区全癌症死亡的相对危险RR=0.99 (95%CI:0.89~1.11),高本底地区和对照地区相比癌症死亡,结果差异无统计学意义(P>0.05);1979-2002年高本底地区全部癌症死亡的超额相对危险系数(ERR/Sv)为-0.01(95%CI:-0.50~0.64)。调整吸烟后,1987-2002年高本底地区全癌症死亡相对危险RR=1.00(95%CI:0.87~1.15),差异无统计学意义(P>0.05);高本底地区全部癌症死亡的ERR/Sv为0.01(95%CI:-0.56~0.81)。 结论 未发现高本底地区小剂量电离辐射引起居民癌症死亡危险的增加。调整吸烟后,高本底地区全部癌症死亡与对照地区相比,差异仍无统计学意义,但超额相对危险(ERR)较调整前稍增大。 |
| 英文摘要: |
| Objective To increase the statistic power to estimate radiation-induced cancer risk on the basis of analysis of the 1999-2002 follow-up data from high background radiation areas (HBRA), in combination with those in the period 1979-1998, and further to estimate radiation-induced cancer risk at low dose after adjustment of individual smoking factor. Methods Cohort studies were conducted of cancer mortality for the residents in both HBRA and control area (CA), with follow-up made in phases. The present study was first focused on the collection of cancer mortality data during 1999-2002, with preliminary analysis of the risks of cancer mortality. And then, the effort was dedicated to analysis of both the risks of cancer mortality and the smoker-adjusted risks of radiation-induced cancer mortality from for the residents in HBRA in period 1999-2002 based on the pooled data during 1999-2002 and 1979-1998 through ID record linkage. Person-years were estimated using Epicure/DATAB model. The relative risk (RR), the excess relative risk coefficient (ERR/Sv) and confidence interval (CI) of cancer mortality from 1979 to 2002 were estimated using Poisson regress model in AMFIT mode. Results A total of 76 264 persons in HBRA and CA was followed up during 1999-2002, covering 300 523 person-years and 2 267 deaths identified, including 239 cancer deaths. Based on pooled data, 125 079 persons were followed up during 1979-2002, which covered 2 293 463 person-years and 14 711 deaths identified, including 1 441 died of cancer. The sex- and age-adjusted RR of all cancers in the HBRA during 1979-2002 was 0.99 (95%CI: 0.89 to 1.11), showing no statistically significant differences between HBRA and CA (P>0.05). The value of ERR/Sv of all cancer mortality during 1979-2002 was -0.01 (95%CI:-0.50 to 0.64). Smoker-adjusted RR of all cancer mortality in HBRA during 1987-2002 was 1.00 (95%CI:0.87 to 1.15), with no statistically significant difference (P>0.05). The value of ERR/Sv for all cancers during 1987-2002 was 0.01 (95%CI:-0.56 to 0.81) after adjustment of smoking. ConclusionsIncreased risk was not found in relation to radiation exposure at low dose in HBRA. After adjustment of smoking, the statistical difference has not been shown in all cancer mortality between HBRA and CA, but excess relative risk increased slightly. |
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